According to a recent report from Dell'Oro Group, a trusted source for market information in telecommunications, security, networks, and data center industries, spending on switches in AI back-end networks is set to boost the Data Center Switch Market by 50 percent. Currently, spending in the data center switch market is primarily focused on front-end networks connecting general-purpose servers. However, the surge in AI workloads demands a new infrastructure buildout for the back end. The competition is heating up between InfiniBand and Ethernet as they vie for dominance in AI back-end networks. While InfiniBand is expected to maintain its lead, Ethernet is projected to make significant gains, potentially capturing 20 revenue-share points by 2027.
Sameh Boujelbene, Vice President at Dell'Oro Group, emphasized the significance of generative AI applications in this new era of AI. These applications stand out due to the large number of parameters they handle. Large AI applications currently manage trillions of parameters, with this count increasing tenfold annually. The rapid growth necessitates deploying thousands or even hundreds of thousands of accelerated nodes. Connecting these nodes in large clusters requires a data center-scale fabric, known as the AI back-end network, which differs from the traditional front-end network used to connect general-purpose servers.
Boujelbene posed a crucial question: what is the most suitable fabric that can scale to hundreds of thousands or potentially millions of accelerated nodes while ensuring the lowest Job Completion Time (JCT)? Although Ethernet is one speed generation ahead of InfiniBand, network speed is not the only factor. Congestion control and adaptive routing mechanisms also play a crucial role. The report analyzed AI back-end network build-outs by major Cloud Service Providers like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Baidu, and others, considering various factors driving their fabric choices to develop the forecast.
Some additional highlights from the AI Networks for AI Workloads Report include:
1. AI networks will accelerate the transition to higher speeds. For instance, 800 Gbps is expected to comprise the majority of ports in AI back-end networks by 2025, just two years after the latest 800 Gbps product introduction.
2. While Tier 1 Cloud Service Providers will drive most of the market demand, Tier 2/3 and large enterprises are anticipated to be significant players, approaching $10 billion in the next five years. Ethernet is expected to be the preferred choice for the latter group.
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